Over the Edge

Confusing correlation for causality, the record industry has long blamed file sharing networks like Napster and Kazaa for a drop in music sales. At last, an independent study says that whatever has caused the woes of the music business -- like, for instance, that lots of contemporary music sucks, or that bands can't build a following when they're not allowed to release new music for years at a time -- the problem isn't file sharing.

Lot of good that does Napster, of course.

The study shows that people who download music for free were probably not going to be buying it anyway. Why? Most of them can't afford it, not at $18 a CD.

"Downloads have an effect on sales which is statistically indistinguishable from zero, despite rather precise estimates," write its authors, Felix Oberholzer-Gee of the Harvard Business School and Koleman S. Strumpf of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill....

"Say I offer you a free flight to Florida," [Oberholzer-Gee] asks. "How likely is it that you will go to Florida? It is very likely, because the price is free." If there were no free ticket, that trip to Florida would be much less likely, he said. Similarly, free music might draw all kinds of people, but "it doesn't mean that these people would buy CD's at $18," he said.

Two questions for further study:

NYTimes piece this morning (by Michael Cooper) about how New York State spends millions of dollars on pork-barrel spending but doesn't actually itemize it anywhere. (Free subscription required.) Turns out that the state budget includes one line -- $200 million for "Community Projects Fund-007" -- that the governor and legislative leaders can disburse without fear of discovery or veto.

Whether or not this leads to abuse, I suppose, depends on your definition of "abuse." But the feeling seems pretty universal that it's a pretty sketchy practice:

"It's bad government, because the grants are not based on any known criteria," said Edmund J. McMahon, the executive director of the Empire Center. "There are no performance guidelines, there is no application process, and at the end, we don't even know if the money was spent on what it was supposed to be spent."

<snip>

Mr. McMahon noted that while members of Congress are debating whether their process for funneling money to pet projects, known as earmarking, is open enough, the federal government at least requires disclosure of each project in Congressional reports that accompany legislation. In Albany, by contrast, the member items are kept secret. The Empire Center's lists, released by the state, do not say exactly what the money is for or even which official requested it.

A couple of groups have managed to tease out where the money -- borrowed money, by the way -- has gone. 

Good to know that a little water hasn't dampened New Orleans's taste for bizarre politics. First comes my friend Jason Perlow running into Mayor Ray Nagin waiting tables. (Check out the rest of his excellent food blog, too.

Then comes Kimberly Williamson Butler, the clerk of the criminal court and a N.O. resident since just 1999, who announced her candidacy on the steps of the courthouse after surrendering for ignoring a string of court orders. Oh, yes -- it appears that her campaign Web site has a pic of the candidate superimposed not on an actual New Orleans scene, but on Disneyland's New Orleans Square.

It would be all the more entertaining if the election weren't so critical for the city's future.

From the Middle Eastern Times:

I was blown up last Tuesday. Luckily I can write about it. Many others who've shared the experience can't. They're dead, or their bodies and brains are so messed up by shrapnel or concussion they can't remember the details.

It takes a special kind of person to be a war correspondent. I know three: Jon Landay of McClatchy, Marie Colvin of The Times of London, and Robert W. Worth of the NYTimes. I'm glad I know them -- and proud to have worked with the first two early in my career -- but I'm even gladder I'm not one of them.

But if you're going to cover the war in Iraq, and Lord knows we need good coverage, this is a hell of a way to do it.